Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 10.715790 12.555033 14.562529 16.909517 19.570941 22.487878 25.919206
2025-01-26 8.398089 11.042642 14.210244 18.250237 23.228862 29.124347 36.590688
2025-02-02 6.727473 9.769889 13.712305 19.113879 26.229035 35.179178 47.171001
2025-02-09 5.544596 8.787873 13.287150 19.837080 28.954128 40.998412 57.876822
2025-02-16 4.472692 7.697191 12.462671 19.793271 30.511245 45.291716 66.823052
2025-02-23 3.555931 6.627924 11.451277 19.264613 31.217965 48.357049 74.206123
2025-03-02 2.803398 5.653396 10.399722 18.477687 31.373602 50.543962 80.390242
2025-03-09 2.337701 5.065883 9.857167 18.376662 32.492672 54.140026 88.768685
2025-03-16 1.927950 4.490605 9.234303 18.037082 33.153329 57.030404 96.212979
2025-03-23 1.760657 4.349656 9.349811 18.948832 35.901781 63.302942 109.162107
2025-03-30 1.529976 4.028764 9.079158 19.129072 37.407492 67.663868 119.337640
2025-04-06 1.321493 3.710180 8.761069 19.172029 38.654081 71.650017 129.101771
2025-04-13 1.134161 3.407429 8.446328 19.216100 39.962897 75.923070 139.760697
2025-04-20 1.084800 3.431228 8.819825 20.651293 43.934755 84.978462 158.871104
2025-04-27 0.999443 3.344593 8.941221 21.589760 47.052754 92.746376 176.234458
2025-05-04 0.913045 3.234835 8.993013 22.384525 49.950856 100.286866 193.584048
2025-05-11 0.786402 2.979266 8.666137 22.333546 51.190067 104.926896 206.142163
2025-05-18 0.651082 2.658345 8.126571 21.746757 51.299306 107.498969 215.176120
2025-05-25 0.525495 2.326760 7.498454 20.873805 50.731460 108.754252 221.888594
2025-06-01 0.450758 2.140809 7.215405 20.761641 51.724759 112.982193 234.154386
2025-06-08 0.377913 1.936019 6.842907 20.384822 52.110544 116.049298 244.411389
2025-06-15 0.358191 1.927911 7.025651 21.396227 55.592660 125.318013 266.600939
2025-06-22 0.316896 1.819082 6.894636 21.596078 57.278974 131.112115 282.472111